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Rory Street's EMC Consulting Blog (2004 - 2011)

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The PC is dead long live the NC (in the cloud)

Cast your mind back to 1995 when the chairman of Oracle, Larry Ellison stated “The personal computer is a ridiculous device”, later followed by “It's too hard to use, too powerful, too costly...” Larry Ellison was off course championing what he thought was the PC’s replacement the NC or Network Computer. The idea behind the NC was not a bad one, everything was stored on centrally held servers (on the Internet) where you didn’t have to worry about how it was going to be backed up and you could access your information from any NC device no matter where you were in the world. The problem was his idea was probably 14 years to early and since then the PC has become slim lined and very cheap.

Today we store a lot of our information online (or dare I call it the cloud?). As consumers we store our photos on flikr, backup up our files using BT Digital Vault and Microsoft’s SkyDrive, we download and store our music on the Internet, we watch TV and films over the Internet and we log into our PC’s or servers at home using programs such as GoToMyPC. Without realising it PC’s started to fulfil the role of Network Computers with the advent of faster broadband connections. But it is not just PC’s that get to play in this new interactive world there are a multitude of devices that access the Internet daily such as Smart Mobile phones, games consoles, set top boxes and even common house hold appliances.

As things are going it appears more and more of the things we do on our computers will be hosted online. The companies providing us with these services will need to scale to meet these demands and to help them meet these demands, is my favourite buzz word of the year “the cloud”. As a consumer I am not too worried about where my data is stored or where my services are provided from as long as it is secure and I can get to my data. One of the biggest problems for services and goods companies is the age old problem of anticipating demand. If I overspend on my infrastructure to supply demand I have costs I will find harder to recoup because demand was not as high as I anticipated. Demand will not always be consistent and so as a company I would like to have the resources on tap I can pay for when I need them instantly, without having to fork out for large infrastructure I will only use intermittently.

Eventually if (and this is a big if) cloud computing takes off in a big way we may find that we no longer need the benefits of a powerful PC. Soon the very desktops we use could be stored in a “Cloud Computing Container”. No longer would we need to worry about upgrades to our operating systems, performance or the software we use - all of this would be taken care of for us. All we would need to access our desktops is a simple Internet enabled computer or dare I say Network Computer?

Published 03 July 2009 11:29 by rory.street
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jamie.thomson said:

I'm not sure that we're all going to have dumb terminals in our homes that connect us to our "stuff" in the cloud but there's a definitely a sea change in process to a situation where we have access to all our "stuff" no matter where we are.

I use the term "personal mainframe" to describe this - the notion that we'll walk up to a machine and logon to ... something. We don't really know where that something is nor do we care - all we know is that somewhere there's some tin (that we don't own) whirring away working on our behalf.

Sounds a lot like big mainframes systems of the 70s, right? Hence, personal mainframes.

-Jamie

July 3, 2009 14:02
 

rory.street said:

I strongly agree with the mainframe analogy, it’s almost as though it’s a reinvention of the main frame. Let’s get rid of the green screens and replace them with glorious colour!

I suppose from the dumb terminal point of view. I could see a house having one or two normal PC’s and then some dumb terminals which would be pretty cheap.  It may be that offices start making use of this technology again as they did in the 70’s with mainframe terminals.

July 3, 2009 14:51
 

Gavyn.Dowst said:

I think one of the reasons this failed to take off back in 1995 still exists as a blocker today and it's not about technology.

There's a psychological portion to this issue, one of trust. Whilst we are happy to use online storage to distribute and hold offline backups of information there is a very widespread and ingrained need in many people, me included, to hold my own data myself, locally. This is well illustrated by the fact that at least 90% of my friends still buy CDs despite then ripping them and only ever listening to them in their ripped state. The having is important.

I think we're quite a way away from entrusting our data entirely to someone, somewhere on the internet who may, or may not exist next year when we'd like to look at those photos from our wedding.

Ultimately, someone has to own the hardware and provide the service to access and use it and this will always mean that our ability to get access to our possessions is reliant on someone else which will remain an uncomfortable position for many people for a long time yet.

July 3, 2009 15:07
 

Rory said:

It’s funny you should bring up the trust subject, because I felt exactly the same way back in 1995. I suppose the ability to physically hold something you own, is a very human concept. But if you think about it people started to progress onto hosted email services such as hotmail in the 90’s.  Instead of you downloading and storing your emails locally you are entrusting a service such as hotmail or gmail to do this for you. I think the same may happen (albeit gradually) with other forms of data.

Maybe it will be the next generation that will be more open to this concept while our generation (like the old biddies we will end up) will be saying things such as

“At least you knew where you were with CD’s”

“I hope you backed that up to hard disk?”

July 3, 2009 15:23
 

jamie.thomson said:

I can imagine these "dumb terminals" being more akin to dedicated devices that have a very specific purpose rather than windows onto all of our "stuff". We're already seeing this - digital photo frames are a perfect example.

Another, which I'm sure we'll see before too long, is cheap "calendar screens" that display our Google Calendar/Live Calendar etc... We just pin them on the wall of our kitchen just like we do paper calendars today.

Jamie

July 3, 2009 15:25

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